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allow me to talk past you

when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
a paradox is always the result of faulty assumptions.
the amount of time and space wasted on the discussion of newcomb's "paradox" is mind-boggling.
please to be defining your parameters completely.
of course, choosing the term "predictor", was the (intentional?) source of the confusion.
there is no such thing as an infallible "predictor" because inherent in the word prediction is the possibility of being incorrect. someone who knows what is going to happen, and truthfully states that, is not "predicting", they are simply stating a fact.
there is nothing in this problem to debate, and frankly it's rather sad that so many "intelligent" people think there is.

Comments

( 7 comments — Leave a comment )
nightspore
Dec. 14th, 2009 05:16 am (UTC)
In other words, you take both boxes.

Newcomb's problem turns out to be (according to David Lewis, and I think his reasoning's correct) a prisoner's dilemma. ("Prisoner's dilemma for space cadets" says Richard Jeffrey.) Whatever you think of paradoxes (I think they get you to real insights, dilemmas certainly exist. So what do you do in a prisoner's dilemma? Translating your post into prisoner's dilemma terms, you would set no store the other prisoner's predicting what you would do and acting to reward you for doing the right thing. So would you defect?
jones_casey
Dec. 14th, 2009 06:25 am (UTC)
no, i disagree with the term used, but i accept that the intention of the experiment was to present an infallible entity.

i don't really think it translates into a prisoner's dilemma. if you transform the entity into an opponent who wants to give up as little as possible, it will clearly always "guess" a&b.
nightspore
Dec. 14th, 2009 12:33 pm (UTC)
You're actually playing it with a replica of yourself, the version of yourself you might be. I'll send you a copy of Lewis's short paper.
nightspore
Dec. 14th, 2009 12:41 pm (UTC)
Oops -- your old email address doesn't work. Where should I send it?
jones_casey
Dec. 14th, 2009 02:16 pm (UTC)
not sure what address isn't working, but casey_donal_jones@yahoo.com is fine.
lapsedmodernist
Dec. 14th, 2009 08:22 am (UTC)
a paradox is always the result of faulty assumptions

hello Ayn Rand!
jones_casey
Dec. 14th, 2009 02:38 pm (UTC)
she was still alive when i was born, so i couldn't possibly be.
( 7 comments — Leave a comment )

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